Why I think micro businesses and small businesses are so important now

Technology is taking over human jobs.  Lots of them.  I'm the taxi driver falling down the hole.  I lived through the technological disruption of the taxi industry in 2003, though I struggled through 4 more years of it, before becoming fully homeless.  In my case, I went directly from working 80+ hours a week to living on the streets the very next day.  I, quite literally, became homeless from working too much.  We live in weird times.

Six years ago, a couple of researchers from Oxford University, in England, looked into the problem of how many human jobs would likely be replaced by new technology in the future. The study, which concluded that 47% of jobs will likely be replaced by new technology.  Here's the link to their research paper.  When?  In the next 20 to 25 years, so by 2033 to 2038, by their reckoning.  We're six years into that 25 years now, and yes, a lot of jobs are disappearing.

Now I know most of your eyes just glazed over, thinking "what does this mean to me?"  In the United States, I looked it up a few months back, and that "47% of jobs" works out to around 92 MILLION JOBS, 47% of the actual working population. That's a lot of jobs, and yes, they are already disappearing.  Many people might ask, "are they sure 92 million jobs will disappear?"  No, it's an estimate.  My thinking is, let's say the researchers are off, and it's 20 % less jobs that disappear, that's still 73.6 million jobs going away.  If the researchers are off, and 20% more jobs disappear, that's over 110 million jobs disappearing.  My point is, whatever the actual number turns out to be it's an astronomical number.

Now a lot of new jobs will be created, but nowhere near enough to put all these people back to work.  Looking forward, this is a huge societal issue, and it has already wreaked havoc on society, with the loss of tens of millions of good paying factory jobs lost in the 1970's through the 2000's.  Right now we have over 7 million American men of working age who are just not working.  They don't get counted in the "unemployment" statistics, because they're not looking for work.  Don't believe me? Here's the guy who wrote the book about it.  It appears that about 2/3 of these men get Social Security Disability checks, and/or other government aid.  So now, your tax dollars are not only supporting the whole government, the massive federal debt interest payments, but also 7 million guys, and a large number of women, many just too lazy to work.  Really.

This is just the beginning, most of the jobs haven't been lost yet, this problem will only get much, much worse.  A very small number of people are looking for answers and ideas to deal with this huge and looming social issue.  Most of those people are high tech people, who have a good idea where technology is heading, and how it will affect the job market.  Right now, there are two main thoughts on how to handle this issue of tens of millions more people losing their jobs to technology.

Idea #1:  This comes from economic development researcher and professor, Richard Florida, who wrote the epic work, The Rise of the Creative Class.  His research, among other things, discovered the wide gap in income between the growing "Creative Class" group of workers, and the also growing number of service sector workers.  His idea is to work with government and business to make service class jobs better paying jobs.  Companies like Whole Foods and Costco figured out how to pay their workers better than many similar companies, so it's possible many other companies could follow suit.  That's a really good idea.  Florida's work has many other facets, and he continues today to research and write on this and related ideas. 

Idea #2 comes from the high tech sector.  The idea now being pushed by many on that front is Universal Basic Income.  This is the concept of giving every single person, or at least every single adult, a check from the government each month.  The thinking is that, with this basic amount of money, poverty will be largely eliminated, people will not have to live in poverty, and will be able to buy the basic necessities with their government check, and can work part time or full time to make more money.  Obviously, the money paid out by the government to pay 330 million Americans $1,000 a month (or whatever amount), has to come from somewhere.  That's $330 billion a month, a third of a trillion dollars, a ludicrous amount, even in today's world.

I don't think this is a good idea, even if it could, somehow, be financed.  Just look at the people on living on Disability, and particularly the areas with huge numbers of people on Disability, like West Virginia and Kentucky.  Those areas are also the epicenter of our opiate crisis.  That's not a coincidence. 

Here's my main problem with both of these ideas.  Richard Florida's plan to raise pay for service workers would most likely require Congress to raise minimum wage quite a bit, and encourage the federal government to provide strong incentives to big business to pay workers more.  Those ideas require our federal government to make really controversial plans, and actually take action, in the near future.  Right now, our government barely functions at all.  Smart ideas, no matter how helpful they could be, will not happen anytime soon in a big way, simply because our government won't be able to accomplish what is required, in a reasonable time frame.

The same is true of Universal Basic Income, it would require higher taxes somewhere, along with astronomical amounts of debt, and it would require smart and timely action by Congress and other parts of the federal government.  That's just not going to happen soon.

So what does that leave us with as options?

My idea.  Encourage and help individuals to create their own jobs, by starting micro businesses and small businesses.  A micro business is generally a one person operation, whether it's an ebay store operated from a spare bedroom, working gigs like Uber and Lyft full time, or providing a needed service for local people or businesses.  A small business is just a slightly larger operation, usually involving one or more employees, like opening a cupcake bakery, or a landscaping business, for example.

Here's the good part of my idea, Congress and government is not involved at all.  It's D.I.Y. (Do It Yourself), grassroots economic development.  When people need extra money, they'll start looking for gig work, part time work, or some "side hustle" to help make ends meet.  That will happen naturally.  In today's world, with all the technology available to most people, it is easier than ever to begin a wide range of money making and small business ideas.  It's still not easy, and it takes a little thinking and a lot of work, but it is entirely possible to find ways to make money outside the traditional job market.

Rather than go to government officials and spend months or years pushing for large scale social plans, my drive is to go right to the people looking to make more money, and help them actually do that.  That's what I want to make this blog about.

Yes, I know many of the posts so far are about Big Picture thinking, and the economy writ large.  I'm into those things, those big ideas and futuristic thinking fascinate me.  That's why I'm the guy writing this blog post.  But at the same time, I got hit by technological disruption as a taxi driver several years ago.  I know how much it sucks.  I know what happens if you ignore new technology like I did.  Right now I'm exactly what I'm writing about.  I'm a former writer and video producer turned "content creator."  I'm an artist and writer using these new media skills and tech platforms to promote and sell my artwork.  So I'm right in the middle of all this myself.

As this blog moves along, I'll throw in my own ideas, things I've learned working with several entrepreneurs, or as a taxi driver or manager, and how I'm dealing with all the things I struggle with.  But I'm also going to show people who are building micro and small businesses, and doing it successfully.

I'm definitely not against Richard Florida and other people working to make service jobs better jobs.  That needs to happen.  I just think it will happen slowly, compared to the massive loss of jobs happening as we speak.  I'm not against the tech people toying with the Universal Basic income idea, and seeing if there are functional ways for that basic idea to work in some way.  But personally, I like the simple and direct method, help people create micro and small businesses.  And help that happen RIGHT NOW.

That's why I see this as my main focus these days, and why I started this blog, separate from my personal blog, to dive full bore into this idea.  Personally I think the U.S. will need millions of small businesses to be built in the next 10-20 years.  So that's where I'm putting my effort.  I hope some of you find things that will help you in your life.